Federal Court Opens the Door for Betting on 2024 US Election Outcomes

By Jane Shaw Senior Editor Updated: 10/21/2024

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We count on Jane to inform our readers about the latest slot games in the US market. With her passion for video games and a degree in engineering, she’s our gambling tech expert. Jane’s also active in our blog section, where she tackles the curiosities and changes in the industry.

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Betting on 2024 US Election Outcomes

Political betting, a contentious issue in the United States, may be entering a new chapter. In a landmark federal court decision, the path has been cleared for betting on US elections, lifting restrictions that have long prevented Americans from wagering on political outcomes. The ruling represents a significant shift for the online gambling industry and could reshape how Americans engage with their electoral system.

Background on Political Betting in the US

Historically, political betting in the United States has faced stringent regulations. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees commodity and derivatives markets, has blocked various efforts to establish platforms for betting on political outcomes. This included markets like PredictIt, which has offered prediction markets on elections but faced restrictions.

Unlike countries such as the UK, where betting on elections is widely accepted, local regulators have been cautious. The concern has often been that political betting could lead to questions about the integrity of elections and open the door to potential manipulation. Despite this, platforms like Kalshi have continued to push for approval to offer election-based betting, ultimately leading to the recent federal court ruling.

Federal Court Ruling

In a pivotal decision, the federal court ruled that Kalshi, an online exchange specializing in event-based markets, could legally host bets on US congressional elections. This ruling followed a lengthy battle with the CFTC, which had previously denied Kalshi’s request to offer political betting.

The court’s decision marks a significant turning point in the debate over political wagering in the United States. In response to the ruling, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour said:

Kalshi can now offer its market on which party will control Congress after an election, which could have major implications for the future of political betting.

The decision is not without controversy, as some critics argue it could undermine confidence in the electoral process. However, supporters believe political betting offers a new way to engage voters and drive public interest in politics.

What It Means for the Future of Election Betting

The court’s decision to allow election betting could lead to a surge of interest from both gambling enthusiasts and political followers. Betting platforms, especially Kalshi, will likely introduce markets for various political races, including presidential and congressional elections.

While this ruling sets a precedent, the future of political betting is still subject to further regulation. The CFTC and other regulatory bodies may impose additional oversight to ensure that these markets remain transparent and free from manipulation.

Arguments For and Against Political Betting

The federal court ruling that allows Kalshi to host political bets represents a pivotal moment in the U.S. gambling and political landscapes. This decision could open the door for broader acceptance of election betting, although it will likely face continued scrutiny and regulation.

Political betting could become a new and trendy segment as the gambling industry evolves. Whether this will lead to increased political engagement or ethical concerns remains to be seen.